Panic over Biden's chances sets in among some N.H. Democrats

On a steamy evening earlier this week, a small group of Democrats gathered in Rollins Park in Concord, New Hampshire. They came for cold drinks and sandwiches and a chance to hear from local Democrats running for city council, the state legislature and governor. But many of them voiced concerns about the man at the top of their ticket: President Biden.

The most recent poll from Saint Anselm College suggests that New Hampshire, which for five straight presidential elections has been a reliable pickup for Democrats, is suddenly in play. And that has some of party’s faithful on the brink of despair.

Dan Wise, a retiree from Concord, is an independent who usually votes Democrat and said he'll vote against former President Trump no matter what. But he said Biden's "awful" debate performance last month made it clear to him that the president's age has become a distraction — and that he's no longer able to prosecute the case against Trump.

"He's not able to fight Trump and counter Trump," Wise said. "And one of things that Trump's been doing is sort of talking about strength. And Biden appears the opposite of that."

Lisa Beaudoin, a Democrat from Concord, is also worried that Biden can't win.

"I'm concerned because we need to make sure that we run the candidate that's going to win. Period," she said.

Beaudoin called Biden's faltering debate performance "unsettling." And she's worried that he's losing support from independents, who tend to be politically moderate and represent New Hampshire's largest share of voters.

"If people in the middle don't believe that Biden can be a strong and capable leader, then we're going to lose," she said. "And we might lose all the way down the ticket, and here in New Hampshire that would be a nightmare for us."

But Biden still has plenty of supporters in New Hampshire, particularly within the state's Democratic establishment. Karen Liot Hill, a city councilor from Lebanon and candidate for the state's Executive Council, said she's all in for the president because of his record over the past three-and-a-half years.

Hill said that includes rolling back student debt, passing an infrastructure bill and leading the country out of the pandemic toward a robust economic recovery. She said Trump's agenda would put much of that at risk.

"I think there is a difference between a bad debate performance and a bad agenda for our nation. And so, I am an enthusiastic supporter of the Biden-Harris administration," she said.

But the recent poll from Saint Anselm College underscores Biden's challenge. The last Republican presidential candidate to win in New Hampshire was George W. Bush in 2000. Biden carried the state comfortably in 2020 and has consistently led Trump by double digits. But the poll, conducted after the debate, has Trump ahead by two points — a significant swing toward the former president.

Neil Levesque, Director of the Institute of Politics at Saint Anselm, said if the debate explains that swing, it will be difficult for Biden to recover.

"The problem with the debate is it's not a single scandal that someone can say, 'I'm sorry this happened, let's move on,'" he said. "And we've seen this with people like, most notably, Bill Clinton. You can't really move on from the aging issue that Biden displayed in the debate and that shocked so many people."

If New Hampshire is now in play, Biden could be in deep trouble, according to Dante Scala, a professor of politics at the University of New Hampshire. If Trump wins New Hampshire, he said, it's likely he'll also prevail in the major swing states, like Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

"Then it's game over as far as the electoral college goes," Scala said. "In a sense, New Hampshire is the canary in the coal mine for Democrats nationally."

There was some good news for Democrats in the poll: it found that Trump remains deeply unpopular. And New Hampshire voters favor Democrats over Republicans on a so-called generic ballot — an advantage that disappears with Biden.

Back at that Democratic gathering in Concord, Gerri King said she's distressed that so much is made of Biden's age.

"Full disclosure: He and I are the same I age. And I work more than full-time," she said. She called the qualms about Biden ageist.

King is a psychologist who said she plans to semi-retire at 102. She called Biden "the most prepared president we've ever had." And she's not concerned about his age.

"Just because he responds — and this is the psychologist in me — in a slower way does not mean he thinks that way. And it also does not mean that he's not prepared and able to do the work."

King said she's working hard for Biden's re-election. But if Biden bows out, she said she'll work just as hard for his replacement.

Biden continues to insist that he is in the race to stay. This week, one of the campaign's top surrogates, Gov. Gavin Newsom of California, was in New Hampshire making the case for the president. He predicted Biden would be the nominee at next month’s convention and defeat Trump in November.

“I am all in, I have his back and I believe the American people will have it on Nov. 5,” Newsom told reporters after talking with patrons at a restaurant in the northern part of the state.