Boston homicide rate drops to historic low; city leaders worry whether it will stay down

Homicide rates in Boston have plummeted this year, representing one the most dramatic drops in deadly violence across more than 200 U.S. cities that also saw rates fall.

So far, Boston police reported eight homicides this year — a historic low for the city. Last year, more than two dozen murders were reported by the end of July, which at the time was considered well below average.

Public safety officials said they were surprised by the decline, but in part they credited a decades-old effort known nationally as the "Boston Miracle." The program was a collaboration between police and community leaders that formed amid rising gang violence in the 1990s that resulted in a big reduction in crime.

One element of the program that still operates today are "peace walks," or weekly events where police, clergy, community leaders and residents walk together in neighborhoods with high incidents of crime, greeting residents and asking about their lives and challenges.

On a recent summer night in Roxbury, about 30 people gathered in a circle to kick off a peace walk with a prayer.

"We have a wonderful police force, we're thankful for them, we pray for them, we're glad to be among them," said the Rev. Colin Leitch of Boston's Church on a Hill and a regular participant in the peace walks.

Boston Police Commissioner Michael Cox joined the walk, too, and several residents warmly welcomed him as the group walked several blocks, stopping in parks, stepping into several local businesses and greeting people passing by.

"Hey, commissioner," a resident yelled across a street to Cox. "May God bless you."

"You too," Cox replied.

"We practice community policing," Cox said. "That's a little different than policing in some other places and just going around and arresting people.

"Community policing," he added, "is doing what we're doing right now: building trust, partnering with people in the community, listening to them, address the needs they have and if we can't solve the problem, connect them with the people who can."

Partnering with clergy is crucial, Cox said, because religious leaders know their communities and can help police build trust. They work with police and help identify what residents need to address issues — like poverty and addiction — that can often be underlying causes of crime.

The walks also may help connect residents in need of food or health care with resources, or otherwise mitigate issues before a tense situation erupts into violence.

The Rev. Arthur Gerald, pastor emeritus of Boston's 12th Baptist Church, said residents want to rely on police to keep neighborhoods safe but often grow wary of officers if they only see them when there's trouble. He said regular peace walks show a human side to police and provide a greater community presence for clergy.

"It's nice to be inside the building, but the presence is more needed outside the building," Gerald said. "We try to break down some of the barriers because in this community it's been difficult at times."

Walking with the group and waving a large purple flag, representing Christian worship, was Catherine Quaratiello, who has lived in Roxbury since the 1970s. She considers the walks to be a way to promote peace.

"This is a community walk in prayer," Quaratiello said, adding she has grandchildren in the neighborhood and cares about their safety.

Boston's crime fighting efforts have evolved since the "Boston Miracle," with police and community leaders now using data to bring resources to areas with higher incidents of crime. As part of their data analysis, city workers also help identify and direct outreach efforts to residents who are more likely to be victims or perpetrators of violence.

Boston Mayor Michelle Wu outlined an anti-violence plan earlier this summer after meeting with local groups. The plan called for more community programs, stronger violence intervention efforts and greater investments in neighborhoods most affected by crime.

Commissioner Cox said the combination of these efforts likely led to what has been a slow decline in the city's murder rate over the past decade. From 2012 to 2023, the city’s homicide rate shrank by about 37%, with the exception of some spikes during the COVID-19 pandemic.

"We're going to continue to partner and work with the community to work on getting to zero, if it's possible," Cox said. "A little bit less each day, each year. That means we're getting better."

Harvard sociology professor Chris Winship, who studies crime, said the collaborations have helped make Boston safer, but so did things such as an improved national economy and the state's tough gun laws. Winship is not convinced Boston can sustain the trend because he said crime statistics fluctuate and luck probably played a role in this year's numbers.

"If we think about baseball, and somebody hits 400 one year, that's extraordinary — even good for (Red Sox hitter) Ted Williams," Winship said. "Do we think they're going to hit 400 next year? 500? No."

Cox isn't declaring victory yet — even though several other types of crime, such as nonfatal shootings, are also down in Boston so far this year. The city did report a few upticks in other criminal activity, such as property crimes and computer hacking.

Cox said he's concerned about maintaining Boston’s historic low homicide rate with a somewhat smaller police force. The city has 10% fewer officers than it did five years ago.

Crime analysts point out that policing isn't the only thing that brings crime rates down. They also say national crime statistics are flawed and don't present a complete, timely picture of trends.

Analyst and consultant Jeff Asher, co-founder of the data analytics firm AH Datalytics,  compiles crime data from various sources to try to get an idea of crime trends in real time. Based on data from local police and other sources, Asher said that murder rates are down in hundreds of U.S. cities, with some exceptions such as Louisville, Kentucky, and Birmingham, Alabama.

Asher said factors such as the federal government's increased public safety spending and the end of the pandemic likely helped push down murder rates.

"I think it's hard to say that what's happening specifically in Boston or some location is causing a decline when it's declining everywhere," Asher said. "Not exactly everywhere, but more or less."

Analysts also cautioned that it’s still early: The most recent official national crime rates aren't out until the fall. And those will include the numbers from the summer, a time when there’s typically a spike in crime.